Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.215838 0.251396 0.290338 0.336064 0.388197 0.445687 0.513792
2025-11-23 0.149786 0.196336 0.252798 0.325905 0.417592 0.528270 0.671429
2025-11-30 0.124404 0.177870 0.247724 0.344716 0.474781 0.641896 0.871359
2025-12-07 0.098328 0.151638 0.225900 0.335332 0.490561 0.700592 1.003448
2025-12-14 0.079217 0.130768 0.206805 0.324884 0.500783 0.749623 1.123745
2025-12-21 0.065499 0.115088 0.192141 0.317585 0.512794 0.800030 1.247970
2025-12-28 0.057417 0.106697 0.186906 0.323043 0.543131 0.878209 1.417468
2026-01-04 0.051845 0.101429 0.185623 0.334022 0.582293 0.971944 1.616763
2026-01-11 0.046447 0.095499 0.182247 0.340743 0.614636 1.056944 1.808209
2026-01-18 0.041306 0.089149 0.177161 0.343629 0.640341 1.132662 1.989688
2026-01-25 0.036575 0.082776 0.171094 0.343815 0.660951 1.200930 2.163100
2026-02-01 0.032108 0.076173 0.163660 0.340455 0.674593 1.257928 2.320965
2026-02-08 0.027988 0.069708 0.155823 0.335748 0.685896 1.312752 2.481079
2026-02-15 0.023750 0.062252 0.145010 0.324005 0.682977 1.342374 2.599794
2026-02-22 0.022745 0.062024 0.149127 0.342566 0.739477 1.482880 2.925130
2026-03-01 0.019607 0.056129 0.140269 0.333221 0.740217 1.520530 3.065918
2026-03-08 0.016842 0.050621 0.131461 0.322831 0.737609 1.551232 3.195284
2026-03-15 0.014662 0.046202 0.124499 0.315574 0.740548 1.592399 3.346576
2026-03-22 0.013494 0.044304 0.123249 0.321001 0.770633 1.688630 3.609548
2026-03-29 0.012732 0.043412 0.124334 0.331917 0.813429 1.812959 3.934841
2026-04-05 0.011821 0.041911 0.123680 0.338600 0.847382 1.921444 4.235023
2026-04-12 0.010823 0.039952 0.121566 0.341469 0.872921 2.014095 4.508624
2026-04-19 0.009819 0.037764 0.118527 0.341654 0.892201 2.094666 4.761944